Blog Day 168 - 08 September 2020

One of my regular and more astute readers has asked me what I think about the "road map", and to tell the truth I don't really know.  The steps as described by the premier seem to be logical and it is good to have a  defined process in place.  But they do seem to be draconian both in time and the requirements in respect to moving from one stage to another in terms of the number of new virus infections.

At the moment you can find an 'expert' to support whichever case you support or whichever argument you agree with.  What do these experts do when we aren't in the middle of a pandemic?

It looks like most hospitality businesses will not be able to reopen until 26/10 or 23/11 and I think that this will be far too late for many.  The big entertainment venues (pubs) will be OK if they are part of a chain and are being propped up by businesses trading in other states, however small family owned venues and businesses will be in all sorts of strife by then.  Remember most of these places have not had any reasonable trading since March of this year.  Two pubs in Williamstown and Seddon have today announced that they have given up and the licensees are closing down and walking away from their businesses.

Retail likewise won't be reopening until at least 26/10.

As a reminder the following are the simplified trigger points and proposed dates for moving from step to step, for Metro Melbourne;

Step One: current position

Step Two (28/9): average daily cases of 30 - 50 cases in Metro Melb over previous 14 days

Step Three (26/10): average less than 5 new cases state wide over previous 14 days

Last Step (23/11): no new cases for 14 days state wide

COVID Normal: no new cases for 28 days state wide, no active cases state wide and no outbreaks of concern in other states or territories.

At the moment the rolling 14 day average for Victoria is: 89

On to the daily figures. Victoria recorded 55 new infections in the last 24 hours out of a national total of 66.  We recorded 8 further deaths bringing the total number of deaths in Victoria to 683.  There are currently 238 Victorians in hospital with the virus and 22 in ICU with 13 in ventilators.

The worldwide new infection figure of over 204,000 is one of the lowest since I have been keeping figures on 07/07 and the daily death figure of nearly 9,400 is one of the highest......go figure?

Corona Virus Daily Stats – Stage 4 Lockdown – Day 37

Date	Aus Infected	Aus Increase	Vic Infected	Vic Increase	Aus Death	Vic Death	Aus Hospl	Vic Hospital	Aus ICU	Vic ICU
02/08	17,920	685	11,557	671	208	123	366	385	44	38
03/08	18,318	444	11,937	429	221	136	408	416	46	35
04/08	18,728	451	12,335	439	232	147	439	456	43	38
05/08	19,444	740	13,035	725	247	162	483	538	44	42
06/08	19,890	483	13,469	471	255	170	566		51
07/08	20,270	461	13,867	450	266	181	600	607	52	41
08/08	20,697	475	14,283	466	278	193	632	636	51	44
09/08	21,084	412	14,659	394	295	210	659	634	53	43
10/08	21,397	337	14,957	322	314	229	657	640	51	47
11/08	21,713	353	15,251	331	332	247	664	650	54	47
12/08	22,127	428	15,646	410	352	267	673	662	51	43
13/08	22,417	290	15,924	278	361	275	685	664	51	37
14/08		387	16,234	372	372	289		659		41
15/08	23,035	312	16,517	303	379	293	680	661	47	41
16/08	23,287	284	16,764	279	396	309	680	662	47	40
17/08	23,576	289	17,046	282	421	334	680	657	47	44
18/08	23,783	225	17,249	222	438	351	674	665	51	45
19/08	23,997	228	17,454	216	450	363	682	675	52	44
20/08	24,235	246	17,686	240	463	376	682	665	52	43
21/08	24,417	180	17,862	179	470	385	682	626	52	40
22/08	24,607	191	18,034	182	483	396	682	610	52	36
23/08	24,811	204	18,231	208	502	415	631	585	43	32
24/08	24,915	120	18,330	116	517	430	604	629	39	31
25/08	25,053	151	18,464	148	528	438	659	617	38	35
26/08	25,204	156	18,608	149	549	462	644	578	42	39
27/08	25,320	115	18,721	113	572	485	603	522	46	29
28/08	25,451	129	18,827	113	584	497	603	513	46	29
29/08	25,543	108	18,903	94	600	513	543	481	35	26
30/08	25,670	125	19,015	114	611	524	510	472	32	25
31/08	25,744	74	19,088	73	652	565	501	453	31	21
01/09	25,831	85	19,150	70	657	570	481	421	27	20
02/09	25,940	109	19,240	90	663	576	450	406	26	18
03/09	26,054	115	19,353	113	678	591	432	361	23	20
04/09	26,155	89	19,434	81	737	650	391	329	26	20
05/09	26,218	82	19,491	76	748	661	391	298	26	21
06/09	26,280	73	19,542	63	753	666	391	283	26	19
07/09	26,319	41	19,579	41	762	675	311	266	26	25
08/09	26,373	66	19,615	55	770	683	295	238	32	22

Date	World Infection	Daily Increase	World Deaths	Daily Increase
25/08	23,811,693	228,708	817,005	4,518
26/08	24,050,333	238,640	823,278	6,273
27/08	24,323,111	272,778	828,887	5,609
28/08	24,623,576	300,465	835,615	6,728
29/08	24,906,503	282,927	841,290	5,675
30/08	25,164,818	258,315	846,757	5,467
31/08	25,382,497	217,679	850,502	3,745
01/09	25,621,967	239,470	854,235	3,733
02/09	25,898,276	276,309	861,136	6,901
03/09	26,169,212	270,936	866,581	5,445
04/09	26,465,221	296,009	873,108	6,527
05/09	26,784,832	319,611	878,806	5,698
06/09	27,060,255	275,423	883,618	4,812
07/09	27,288,585	228,330	887,549	3,931
08/09	27,492,982	204,397	896,926	9,377

And now the State of Disaster remembers;

Remember: Keep your aluminium foil hat on, please don't go to the beach, to stay indoors between 8.00pm and 5.00am, stay safe & stay strong, respect the 5km limits, don't try & get a haircut, drink your coffee at home, don't dither at the supermarket checkout, don't get Jim's Mowing in to cut your grass, get some virus approved exercise, shop at Harvey Norman for good service, be honest, if in doubt wear a mask and a face shield, remember the fallen, get plenty of sleep, laugh at my jokes, have a virtual beer with a Vietnam vet, if you have to ask - the answer is no, remain vigilant, act responsibly, apologise if you are wrong, use Zoom to keep in touch, put your bins out before curfew, don't smoke around your baby, keep your eye on the ball, watch the averages and be kind.