Blog Day 204 - 15 October 2020

 On my walk today I noticed that some of the hospitality and retail businesses in my area appear to be preparing for a reopening.  The Boundary Hotel, which did a complete refurbishment of the dining area prior to the last aborted reopening is doing a refurbishment of the public bar and one of the trendy cafes/coffee shops, The Merchants Guild, had been completely gutted prior to being refurbished.  Somebody is spending a lot of money there.

A couple of the smaller cafes that had closed for the duration have also reopened for take away so there must be a little bit of confidence that something positive is going to happen shortly.

Lets hope that their optimism isn't misplaced and they can all reopen in some form or another shortly and for longer than the last time we tried to reopen.

I daresay we will all find out what is going to happen next Sunday, although a bit of a heads up will be nice before then.

The day to day figures are looking encouraging for Melbourne and Victoria but the rolling 14 day average isn't moving much below the 10 figure for the state and nowhere near 5 for Melbourne metropolitan.

In the last 24 hours Victoria recorded only 6 new infections and no deaths.  The state death toll remains at 816 and nationally at 904.  There are 21 Victorians in hospital due to the virus and none in ICU.  There 28 patients in hospital nationally with the virus and one in ICU.  

Rolling 14 day average;

14/10: Metro 9.5, Regional 0.6, Total 10.1

15/10: Metro 8.9, Regional 0.6, Total 9.5

It's a pity that there is very little good news in the worldwide figures.  Worldwide there were 2,340,000 new infections for the week which is the highest figure for new infections in at least the last 10 weeks.  There were 36,000 deaths in the last week, which although lower than the previous weeks not low enough to be of particular significance.

With the figures, last week's figures are in brackets.

The USA recorded one of their highest figures for new infections for some time at 370,000 (328,000) for the week and 5,000 (5,000) deaths.  The USA has recorded around the 5,000 deaths per week for the last few weeks, down from highs of 7,700 in early August.

Brazil and Mexico although still recording high figures seem to have things under control.  Brazil recorded 139,000 (189,000) new infections and 3,000 (4,000) deaths.  Mexico reported 31,000 (56,000) new infections and 2,000 (5,000) deaths), although the 56,000 new infections reported by Mexico last week appear to be an aberration.

India has brought new infections for the week down from 523,000 to 472,082 and deaths from 6,900 to 5,700.  Although high in raw numbers proportional to population these figures are quite low.  India's death rate per million of population is 81 compared to say 713 and 711 for Brazil and Spain respectively.

The USA, Brazil, Mexico and India account for 43% of the new infections for the week and 45% of the new deaths down from 49% and 51% the week before.

Europe is experiencing a 3rd wave or is it still the 2nd wave of over 100,000 new infections per day.

The UK reported 110,000 (91,000) new infections for the week, Spain 65,000 (103,000), Italy 39,000 (19,000) and France 125,000 (90,000).  Likewise the death figures were higher for these countries with the UK reporting 640 deaths (372), Spain 851 (771), Italy 228 (167) and France 592 (489).  It would be reasonable to assume that these death rates will continue to climb as there is a flow on from the increasing infection rates.

The UK, Spain, Italy and France account for 15% of the new infections for the week and 6% of the new deaths up from 8% and 3% the week before.

I see that France has imposed a curfew on about a third of its population along with other lockdown measures be reimposed on cafes etc.  The UK has established a three tier lockdown system to be imposed as necessary to try and control their 2nd or 3rd wave bounce.

Tables as below;

Corona Virus Daily Stats – Stage 4 Lockdown – 2^nd Step Restrictions – Day 18

Date	Aus Infected	Aus Increase	Vic Infected	Vic Increase	Aus Death	Vic Death	Aus Hospl	Vic Hospital	Aus ICU	Vic ICU
27/09	27,033	17	20,145	16	872	784	68	51	12	9
28/09	27,045	5	20,150	5	875	787	65	49	12	8
29/09	27,056	12	20,159	10	882	794	63	46	11	5
30/09	27,076	20	20,171	13	886	798	60	44	8	6
01/10	27,096	18	20,183	15	888	800	55	38	9	6
02/10	27,110	13	20,190	7	890	802	50	38	9	4
03/10	27,122	9	20,199	8	893	805	50	34	9	4
04/10	27,133	11	20209	12	894	806	49	34	9	4
05/10	27,144	10	20,206	9	894	806	49	30	9	3
06/10	27,163	15	20,234	15	895	807	46	21	6	1
07/10	27,183	9	20,239	6	924	809	37	16	5	2
08/10	27,204	23	20,247	11	897	809	32	17	6	1
09/10	27,227	21	20,258	11	897	809	31	17	3	1
10/10	27,244	17	20,271	14	897	809	31	21	3	1
11/10	27,261	17	20,281	12	898	810	31	21	3	0
12/10	27,279	18	20,296	15	898	810	31	21	1	0
13/10	27,298	19	20,307	12	899	811	32	22	1	0
14/10	27,338	20	20,312	7	904	816	32	23	1	0
15/10	27,358	18	20,316	6	904	816	28	21	1	0

Country	Population	Infected No	Infected Increase	Deaths No	Deaths Increase No	Deaths per Million Population
Belgium	11,500,000	173,240	38,949	10,244	152	891
UK	68,000,000	654,644	110,369	43,155	640	635
Spain	47,000,000	937,311	65,035	33,413	851	711
Italy	60,000,000	372,799	38,859	36,289	228	605
Sweden	10,000,000	101,332	4,655	5,907	15	591
France	65,000,000	779,063	125,554	33,037	592	508
USA	331,000,000	8,146,377	370,495	221,801	5,041	670
Brazil	213,000,000	5,141,498	139,141	151,779	3,475	713
Mexico	129,000,000	825,340	30,732	84,420	2,072	654
South Africa	59,000,000	696,414	11,259	18,151	903	308
Russia	146,000,000	1,340,409	91,790	23,205	1,340	159
World	7,800,000,000	38,721,606	2,340,765	1,096,156	36,184	141
India	1,300,000,000	7,305,070	472,082	111,311	5,757	86
Australia	25,000,000	27,337	155	904	7	36
New Zealand	5,000,000	1,874	13	25	0	5

Corona Virus International Stats as at 15/10/2020

And now the stage 4 lockdown 2nd step restrictions remembers.

Remember: if you are doing anything wrong don't get caught, it could cost you $5,000!; you gotta wear a face mask no more face shields - thems the rules; somebody somewhere is testing your poo!; do not under any circumstances annoy a Cassowary; if you need a boost to your morale watch Zulu; keep to your 5km zone and if that doesn't include a beach don't go to the beach; try not to commit perjury (allegedly); to vote if you don't want a fine, show true grit, tell your children not to get involved in politics, it might be time to get excited over the idea of the a shop bought coffee.