Blog Day 169 - 09 September 2020

 Somebody will write a thesis on this one day, how a state can move from a 'state of normalcy' to a 'state of emergency' to a 'state of disaster' to a 'state of despair' to a 'state of chaos' and whatever comes next.

Victoria has done all of this in the matter of a few months although I think we skipped the 'state of despair' somewhere along the way unless it sneaked in there and I didn't notice.

So on to today's 'state of chaos';

• the people who did the "super" computer modelling that this whole 'road map' thing is based on have said that it may not be quite as accurate as we would like because they neglected to include a fairly significant variable such as improvements in contact tracing.  So no matter how 'super' your computer is if you put in crap you get crap back.  (Anyway has does anybody still use the term 'super computer', last time I heard it was when Big Blue beat Bobby Fischer in a chess game in 1963 or thereabouts or in an Austin Powers movie).
• next, somebody in the government has finally said that our contact tracing is crap and finally sent some people to NSW to have a look at their contact tracing which apparently isn't crap.  Only took six months.
• The Chief Health Officer said today that the curfews that we are all experiencing wasn't his idea and he didn't know about it being implemented.  Remember, these curfews were implemented under the State of Emergency which is the responsibility of the CHO.  So if the CHO didn't implement it who did, on whose authority and based on what information, and what are our chances of finding out?
• finally, we have discovered today that somebody has had a significant reaction to the "Oxford" vaccine which isn't good news and may cause a delay in its production.  I know that this isn't a problem caused by and only affecting this state but it doesn't help matters much.
• do I need to mention that so far not one government department or minister has so far accepted any responsibility for the hotels quarantine fiasco.

This level of incompetence, makes even the Cain/Kirner days look good.  You younger readers will have to look that one up, but it will provide you with a good case study on how not to run a state.  Nearly as good as studying the Whitlam years for an understanding on how not to run a country, but that's another story.

Today's figures, Victoria has reported 76 new infections for the last 24 hours, up from 55 the previous day that's not going to help our rolling 14 day average.  We reported 11 deaths bringing the state total to 694, the national death toll is 781.  The only good news today is that the hospital figures are still declining, 196 Victorians currently in hospital with the virus down from 238 the day before.  There are 20 Victorians in ICU and 12 on ventilators.  

The rolling 14 day average for the state today is 80 (75 metro and 5 regional).  Remember, to move to the second step the Metro rolling 14 day average has to be between 30 and 50.  I will include the rolling 14 day average in the table from Monday, when the bonus 14 days of stage 4 lockdown kicks in.

I will do a bit more detailed study of the international figures tomorrow.  Although I am not sure when I will squeeze that in given I have a AWM webinar to attend, a Shrine volunteer zoom meeting to zoom into and a U3A zoom meeting to attend.  Busy day....

Corona Virus Daily Stats – Stage 4 Lockdown – Day 38

Date	Aus Infected	Aus Increase	Vic Infected	Vic Increase	Aus Death	Vic Death	Aus Hospl	Vic Hospital	Aus ICU	Vic ICU
02/08	17,920	685	11,557	671	208	123	366	385	44	38
03/08	18,318	444	11,937	429	221	136	408	416	46	35
04/08	18,728	451	12,335	439	232	147	439	456	43	38
05/08	19,444	740	13,035	725	247	162	483	538	44	42
06/08	19,890	483	13,469	471	255	170	566		51
07/08	20,270	461	13,867	450	266	181	600	607	52	41
08/08	20,697	475	14,283	466	278	193	632	636	51	44
09/08	21,084	412	14,659	394	295	210	659	634	53	43
10/08	21,397	337	14,957	322	314	229	657	640	51	47
11/08	21,713	353	15,251	331	332	247	664	650	54	47
12/08	22,127	428	15,646	410	352	267	673	662	51	43
13/08	22,417	290	15,924	278	361	275	685	664	51	37
14/08		387	16,234	372	372	289		659		41
15/08	23,035	312	16,517	303	379	293	680	661	47	41
16/08	23,287	284	16,764	279	396	309	680	662	47	40
17/08	23,576	289	17,046	282	421	334	680	657	47	44
18/08	23,783	225	17,249	222	438	351	674	665	51	45
19/08	23,997	228	17,454	216	450	363	682	675	52	44
20/08	24,235	246	17,686	240	463	376	682	665	52	43
21/08	24,417	180	17,862	179	470	385	682	626	52	40
22/08	24,607	191	18,034	182	483	396	682	610	52	36
23/08	24,811	204	18,231	208	502	415	631	585	43	32
24/08	24,915	120	18,330	116	517	430	604	629	39	31
25/08	25,053	151	18,464	148	528	438	659	617	38	35
26/08	25,204	156	18,608	149	549	462	644	578	42	39
27/08	25,320	115	18,721	113	572	485	603	522	46	29
28/08	25,451	129	18,827	113	584	497	603	513	46	29
29/08	25,543	108	18,903	94	600	513	543	481	35	26
30/08	25,670	125	19,015	114	611	524	510	472	32	25
31/08	25,744	74	19,088	73	652	565	501	453	31	21
01/09	25,831	85	19,150	70	657	570	481	421	27	20
02/09	25,940	109	19,240	90	663	576	450	406	26	18
03/09	26,054	115	19,353	113	678	591	432	361	23	20
04/09	26,155	89	19,434	81	737	650	391	329	26	20
05/09	26,218	82	19,491	76	748	661	391	298	26	21
06/09	26,280	73	19,542	63	753	666	391	283	26	19
07/09	26,319	41	19,579	41	762	675	311	266	26	25
08/09	26,373	66	19,615	55	770	683	295	238	32	22
09/09	26,463	93	19691	76	781	694	264	196	29	20

Date	World Infection	Daily Increase	World Deaths	Daily Increase
25/08	23,811,693	228,708	817,005	4,518
26/08	24,050,333	238,640	823,278	6,273
27/08	24,323,111	272,778	828,887	5,609
28/08	24,623,576	300,465	835,615	6,728
29/08	24,906,503	282,927	841,290	5,675
30/08	25,164,818	258,315	846,757	5,467
31/08	25,382,497	217,679	850,502	3,745
01/09	25,621,967	239,470	854,235	3,733
02/09	25,898,276	276,309	861,136	6,901
03/09	26,169,212	270,936	866,581	5,445
04/09	26,465,221	296,009	873,108	6,527
05/09	26,784,832	319,611	878,806	5,698
06/09	27,060,255	275,423	883,618	4,812
07/09	27,288,585	228,330	887,549	3,931
08/09	27,492,982	204,397	896,926	9,377
09/09	27,722,283	229,301	900,878	3,952

And now the State of Disaster remembers;

Remember: Don't give up, keep your aluminium foil hat on, please don't go to the beach, to stay indoors between 8.00pm and 5.00am, stay safe & stay strong, respect the 5km limits, don't try & get a haircut, drink your coffee at home, don't dither at the supermarket checkout, don't get Jim's Mowing in to cut your grass, get some virus approved exercise, shop at Harvey Norman for good service, be honest, if in doubt wear a mask and a face shield, remember the fallen, get plenty of sleep, laugh at my jokes, have a virtual beer with a Vietnam vet, if you have to ask - the answer is no, remain vigilant, act responsibly, apologise if you are wrong, use Zoom to keep in touch, put your bins out before curfew, don't smoke around your baby, keep your eye on the ball, watch the averages and be kind.