Blog Day 552 - Tuesday 05 October 2021 - Day 61 of Covid Lockdown V6.0 Extended

I see that even Saint Jucinda of the long white cloud has given up on the idea of elimination of the covid virus and will now settle for "heavy suppression" whatever that is, sounds a bit like heavy breathing, do NZers do that?

It is interesting when governments are aiming for elimination of the virus there is a lot of chest thumping (not you Jucinda, please) and aggressive warlike talk as if the virus is the enemy.  When the government slips into suppression mode it is done almost sneakily without any of the aggressive posturing.  Can anybody in Victoria tell me the actual date we moved from elimination to suppression?  I don't think so.  There was a subtle change in the approach at the media conferences but no BIG announcement, maybe no votes in admitting that you have been beaten.

Israel, which has led the world in 1st and 2nd vaccinations of the population is now mandating booster shots for any body who has had their 2nd shot more than six months ago, it is probably a bit more complicated than that but that is the gist.  This will be a requirement to qualify for a valid vaccination passport.  

If that is the case are we in for 6 monthly booster shots in due course?

Talking about vaccination rates, nationally 79.9% of the eligible population have received their first vaccination and 57.4% their second.  In Victoria the figures are 82.9% and 53.6% respectively.

In the last 24 hours Victoria recorded 1,763 new infections, this is the highest 24 hour figure for any Australian state for the entire pandemic.  That was up from 1,377 the day before.  On the other hand the NSW daily infection figures are dropping with 608 reported in the last 24 hours.  It is almost like the two states are connected with a giant see-saw somewhere along the Murray river, when one state goes up the other goes down and vice versa.

Although the Victorian infection rates are increasing rapidly testing rates are not going up equally.  Victoria received the results of 62,000 tests in the last 24 hours, when NSW was in this position they were testing 100,000 plus every day for many days.

Under the suppression model even if the daily infection numbers are rising the hospital and death numbers should remain relatively stable or even reduce.  Currently in Victoria we have 517 people in hospital due to the virus, 101 of those are in ICU and 66 are on ventilators.  On 1/10 there were 395 in hospital, 87 in ICU and 59 on ventilators.  So, short term these figures are increasing, longer term will be interesting.

In the last 24 hours 4 Victorians died due to the virus and 4 in the previous 24 hours.

    Corona Virus Daily Stats – 05 October 2021 – Day 61 of Covid Lockdown V6.0 Extended

Date	Aus Infected	Aus Increase	Aus 1st Dose Vacc	Vic Infected	Vic Increase	NSW Increase	*Aus Active Infection	NSW Active Infection	Vic Active Infection	Aus 2nd Dose Vacc
01/10	107,181	2,064	77.8%	38,476	1,143	866	21,114	9,862	10,944	54.2%
02/10		2,360		39,749	1,488
03/10	111,388	1,928	79%	41,128	1,220	668	21,378	9,215	11,785	56%
04/10					1,377	623
05/10	115,800	2,406	79.9%	44,251	1,763	608	23,376	8,571	14,368	57.4%
06/10

Date	Aus New Infection	Aus Hospital	Aus ICU	Aus Ventilate	Vic New Infection	Vic Hospital	Vic ICU	Vic Ventilate	AUS Daily Deaths	Vic Daily Deaths
01/10	2,066	1,483	300	166	1,143	395	87	59	20	3
02/10	2,360	1,468	302	156	1,488	429	97	54	12	2
03/10	1,928	1,494	298	153	1,220	476	98	57	13	3
04/10
05/10	2,406	1,535	298	161	1,763	517	101	66	11	4
06/10