Blog Day 554 - Thursday 07 Oct 2021 - Day 63 0f Covid Lockdown V6.0 Extended 

Just entered day 63 (that's 9 weeks) of this short sharp lockdown!  And we are still reporting record numbers of daily infections and people are still openly flouting the rules.  A new cluster is developing out of a 16th birthday party in the Essendon area attended by young folk from some of the private schools in the area.

And just a reminder, do not break the rules in WA, the two Melbourne supporters who snuck into WA from Melbourne for the AFL grand final are still languishing in gaol there waiting for their next court appearance on 13/10.  I hope that the authorities have them making little rocks out of big rocks.

Have a look at the chart below, this tells us that in the Melbourne CBD just 6% of those who had been working in the CBD prior to covid worked there in September 21.  The figures for Sydney are similar bit worse with 4%.  

At the moment this situation is caused by government regulation causing people to work from home and stopping people from attending their workplace.  

Even when the lockdown rules are lifted the number of people traveling into the CBD will still be significantly less than pre covid.  People will still be cautious about returning to an office environment, there will still be caution about traveling on public transport, people will still be revelling in the delights of working from home and the government will still be urging people to work from home where possible.


May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21
Melbourne45%26%12%7%6%
Sydney68%67%7%4%4%
Canberra71%72%73%8%8%
Brisbane71%71%67%60%51%
Adelaide78%80%15%65%64%
Perth77%76%78%77%76%
Darwin93%88%89%82%89%
Hobart93%89%95%94%89%
The Melbourne city council is concerned that even after lockdown is lifted and life starts to return to some sense of normalcy that the CBD will take a long time to recover and in some cases may not recover at all or in the short to medium term.  Docklands springs to mind with 40% of the shopfronts empty.  (Actually I would have thought that this was an improvement for docklands).

Once the restrictions are lifted various government departments and authorities will try and mandate that their employees work at least three days a week from their offices in the CBD.  However last time they tried this the employees and their unions told the government to get nicked and that they would work where and when they wanted to, so take that.

Of course the big concern is that the CBD never recovers and it turns into an urban wasteland like some of the American cities I have visited, Memphis and Detroit spring to mind.

Well, lets have a look at what is causing all of this grief.  In the last 24 hours Victoria reported 1,638 new virus infections and 1,413 the day before, this was off a Victorian state record of 1,763 new infections the previous day.  

In NSW the daily infections continue to decline with 587 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.

Victoria and NSW continue to incur the lion's share of the new infections with a total in the last 24 hours of 2,225 from a national total of 2,272.

These figures are as a result of 77,000 tests in the last 24 hours in Victoria and 112,000 tests in NSW.

Currently nationally 80.5% of the eligible population have received one injection and 58.4% are double dosed.  In Victoria 83.6% are single dosed and 54.5% are double dosed.

In Victoria the hospitalisation rates are continuing to increase with currently 564 covid patients in Victorian hospitals, as at 1/10 there were 395 covid patients in Victorian hospitals.  The ICU and ventilator patients also continue to increase to 115 and 74 respectively.

Victoria recorded 2 new deaths in the last 24 hours and NSW 8.

Under the suppression plan as the vaccination rate increases we can expect new infection rates may continue to increase however hospitalisation rates should stabilise and start to decrease.  

The UK is a good example of how this is supposed to work;

    Nov 2020        Daily New Infections 20,000        Daily Deaths    500
    Jan  2021                                            30,000                                 1,000
    Oct 2021                                            30,000                                  150

I know it is a bit dangerous plucking random figures, but this gives you a good idea how suppression is supposed to work, but it is dependant of getting a high proportion of the population vaccinated.

     Corona Virus Daily Stats – 07 October 2021 – Day 63 of Covid Lockdown V6.0 Extended

Date

Aus Infected

Aus Increase

Aus

1st Dose

Vacc

Vic Infected

Vic Increase

NSW Increase

*Aus

Active Infection

NSW Active Infection

Vic

Active Infection

Aus

2nd Dose Vacc

01/10

107,181

2,064

77.8%

38,476

1,143

866

21,114

9,862

10,944

54.2%

02/10

 

2,360

 

39,749

1,488

 

 

 

 

 

03/10

111,388

1,928

79%

41,128

1,220

668

21,378

9,215

11,785

56%

04/10

 

 

 

 

1,377

623

 

 

 

 

05/10

115,800

2,406

79.9%

44,251

1,763

608

23,376

8,571

14,368

57.4%

06/10

 

 

 

 

1,413

594

 

 

 

 

07/10

120,079

2,272

80.5%

47,302

1,638

587

23,435

7,868

15,074

58.4%

08/10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 















C

Date

Aus New Infection

Aus Hospital

Aus

ICU

Aus

Ventilate

Vic New

Infection

Vic

Hospital

Vic

ICU

Vic

Ventilate

AUS Daily Deaths

Vic

Daily Deaths

01/10

2,066

1,483

300

166

1,143

395

87

59

20

3

02/10

2,360

1,468

302

156

1,488

429

97

54

12

2

03/10

1,928

1,494

298

153

1,220

476

98

57

13

3

04/10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/10

2,406

1,535

298

161

1,763

517

101

66

11

4

06/10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/10

2,272

1,517

305

165

1,638

564

115

74

10

2

08/10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




     Virus Daily Stats Hospitalisation Etc – 07 October 2021 – Day 63 of Covid Lockdown V6.0             Extended

Apologies if the tables are a bit skew whiff today, blogger is giving me a hard time and I have given up trying to fix it!

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