Week 9 - Wednesday 17 May 2022 - Reasonably Covid Normal

Early blog this week as I am a bit busy tomorrow.

This also maybe the last blog for a couple of weeks as I start work with the CAE on Saturday and that will probably go for at least one week and maybe two.

I think that I may have mentioned that I have been pursuing the refund of some money from Qantas for a deceased estate that I am the executor of.  Well, finally after 6 months of frustrating dealing and attempted dealing with Qantas they have paid the $600 owed to the estate.  I had to threaten to go to the media and the ACCC to get this to happen.  Well done that man I say!

Of course the Federal election has been dominating the news cycle over the last week or so. Clive Palmer's United Australia Party has been dominating the paid advertising medium with numerous full page ads in the print media and many ads running on television and radio, mainly promising things that they have no chance of delivering, even if they get somebody elected, which is most unlikely anyway.

Both Liberal and Labor have been promising the world if elected with billions of dollars being thrown around like it was somebody else's money they were spending.  Hang on a minute, it is somebody else's money, it is ours, the long suffering tax payer.

The elephant on the room that is being ignored in this election by both Liberal and Labor is the covid pandemic.  Obviously the Libs don't want the nursing home deaths raised or the initial difficulties experienced with the supply of vaccine. On the other hand Labor wouldn't want to be reminding people of the many failures of the Victorian state government during the pandemic, particularly with a state election looming on the horizon.

It is almost like there is a bit of gentlemen's agreement not to mention the war, so to speak.

Even on the most casual observation it is apparent that the covid virus is not under control either in Victoria or nationally.  Victoria is reporting around 11,000 new infections per day and nationally the daily new infection figure is between 30,000 and 50,000.  But worse than that the daily death figures are averaging around 20 per day in Victoria and 40 to 50 per day nationally.

If we believe the medical people working in the Victorian hospitals the hospitals are close to collapse and the ambulance service can't cope with people dying in their homes cause they can't get an ambulance.  How much of this information is being spread by people with vested interests or trying to point score I don't know but even if it is half right it still means that we have big problems in the health system.

There are currently 516 people in hospital in Victoria due to covid.  Previously 300 patients was the trigger for a code brown to be called in the Victorian health system.  A few months ago these numbers would have seen a grim faced premier at his media conference in his North Face jacket berating all and sundry and telling us it was all our fault or the federal government fault and that we didn't deserve him as premier as he was too good for us etc.  However, this time around nary a squeak out of the premier or any of his minions.  Hmmmmm, would it be presumptuous of me to assume that the sounds of silence are because there is a state election looming on the horizon.  Maybe I shouldn't be so cynical.

Talking about lies, more lies and statistics, here is something interesting.  I am currently reading a book by Niall Ferguson called "Doom - The Politics of Catastrophe".  Ferguson is a British historian who does a lot of statistical and economic studies around historical events.  In this book, which was published during in the pandemic, he does a bit of analysis around the covid numbers as they were at the time of writing.

In his book Ferguson tells us that 59,000 Americans died of the flu in 2018 (prior to covid).  I have used this figure to compare death in the US from flu to deaths to covid.  In the 28 months of the pandemic 1,026,899 Americans died with or due to covid.  If the 2018 flu numbers are extrapolated out to 28 months the death numbers for the flu for the pandemic period would be 138,000.

Given over one million Americans died with covid in 28 months and 138,000 would most likely have died with the flu in the same period does anybody still think that covid is just another flu and we have panicked over nothing.  No reasonable person would think that, would they!

    Corona Virus Weekly Stats – From 22 March 2022 – Week 9 Reasonably Covid Normal

D	Aus Infected	Aus Increase Daily	Aus 1st Dose Vacc	Vic Infected	Vic Increase Daily	NSW Increase Daily	*Aus Active Infection	NSW Active Infection	Vic Active Infection	Aus 2nd Dose Vacc
22/03	3,975,559	32,379	96.7%	1,195,239	9,594	9,594	387,622	211,527	52,983	94.9%
30/03	4,436,572	50,082	96.8%	1,271,494	11,749	25,235	479,116	258,112	58,488	95.1%
04/04	4,715,763	35,015	96.8%	1,320,678	10,011	15,572	500,914	266,110	63,545	95.2%
13/04	5,207,650	54,185	96.9%	1,410,828	10,907	18,265	443,901	234,081	60,756	95.3%
20/04	5,494,804	36,856	97.0%	1,471,567	10,628	15,414	311,570	188,676	53,518	95.4%
27/04	5,780,569	24,135	97.0%	1,532,685	10,734	12,188	340,481	157,589	51,835	95.4%
04/05	6,072394	42,725	97.1%	1,597,464	10,779	11,939	317,353	139,572	57,154	95.5%
11/05	6,387,747	53,338	97.2%	1,673533	13,973	12,265	350,262	137,336	67,608	95.5%
17/05	6,683,581	33,281	97.2%	1,747,794	13,694	10,972	382,835	135,280	77,809	95.6%
25/05

Corona Virus Daily Stats Hospitalisation Etc – From 22 March 2022 – Week 9 Reasonably Covid Normal
Date	Aus New Infection Daily	Aus Hospital	Aus ICU	Aus Ventilate	Vic New Infection Daily	Vic Hospital	Vic ICU	Vic Ventilate	AUS Daily Deaths	Vic Daily Deaths
22/03	32,379	2,090	93	21	9,594	256	24	5	26	7
30/03	50,082	2,446	100	21	11,749	280	18	5	28	7
04/04	35,015	2,645	108	21	10,011	305	17	3	7	1
13/04	54,185	3,147	126	29	10,907	391	19	2	39	14
20/04	36,856	3,325	155	39	10,628	437	34	12	35	14
27/04	24,135	3,385	144	N/A	10,734	456	32	8	33	13
04/05	42,725	3,111	148	N/A	10,779	473	25	6	44	11
11/05	53,338	3,102	114	N/A	12,265	533	33	5	40	17
17/05	35,281	3,154	129	N/A	10,972	516	31	3	49	20
25/05